A roundup of cloud computing forecasts and market estimates for 2015
Global SaaS software revenues are forecasted to reach $106B in 2016, increasing 21% over projected 2015 spending levels. A Goldman Sachs study published earlier this year projects that spending on cloud computing infrastructure and platforms will grow at a 30% CAGR from 2013 through 2018 compared with 5% growth for the overall enterprise IT.
Centaur Partners and other firms mentioned in this roundup are seeing more enterprise-size deals for cloud computing infrastructure and applications. While each of these consultancies and research firms have varying forecasts for the next few years, all agree that cloud computing adoption is accelerating in enterprises on a global scale.
Key take-aways from the roundup are provided below:
- By 2018, 59% of the total cloud workloads will be Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) workloads, up from 41% in 2013. Cisco is predicting that by 2018, 28% of the total cloud workloads will be Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) workloads down from 44% in 2013. 13% of the total cloud workloads will be Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) workloads in 2018, down from 15% in 2013. The following graphic provides a comparative analysis of IaaS, PaaS and SaaS forecasts from 2013 to 2018. Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2013–2018. (PDF, free, no opt-in).
- Centaur Partners’ analysis of SaaS & cloud-based business application services revenue forecasts the market growing from $13.5B in 2011 to $32.8B in 2016, attaining a 19.5% CAGR. Centaur provides a useful overview of current market conditions including M&A activity in their latest market overview published this month, Introduction to Centaur Partners: SaaS Market Overview, (PDF, free, no opt-in).
- 42% of IT decision makers are planning to increase spending on cloud computing in 2015, with the greatest growth in enterprises with over 1,000 employees (52%). The top five tech spending increases in 2015 are shown in the following graphic. Source: Computerworld’s 2015 Forecast Predicts Security, Cloud Computing And Analytics Will Lead IT Spending.
- Global SaaS software revenues are forecasted to reach $106B in 2016, increasing 21% over projected 2015 spending levels. Spending on integration, storage management, and database management systems are projected to experience the greatest growth in 2015. These and other key insights are from Forrester’s SaaS software subscription revenue by category show below. Source: Enterprise software spend to reach $620 billion in 2015: Forrester.
- $78.43B in SaaS revenue will be generated in 2015, increasing to $132.57 in 2020, attaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.14%. The following graphic and table provides an overview of Forrester’s Global Public Cloud Computing market size analysis and forecast for the years 2011 to 2020. Source: Institut Sage.
- Spending on cloud computing infrastructure and platforms is expected to grow at a 30% CAGR from 2013 through 2018 compared with 5% growth for the overall enterprise IT. Goldman Sachs estimates that Amazon has taken in $4B in revenue, or 26% of the IaaS and PaaS markets, in the past 12 months. These and other insights and the graphics below are from an analysis of the recent Goldman Sachs cloud computing report. Thank you Michael Coté, Research Director, Infrastructure Software at 451 Research for freely sharing your latest presentation, Cloud State of the Union, 2015. Additional interesting links regarding Goldman Sachs’ recent cloud computing study include Battle Of Cloud Titans Has Just Begun, Goldman Says and Red Hat: Goldman Cuts to Sell Amidst Bullish Cloud View.
- Security (36%), cloud computing (31%) and mobile devices (28%) are the top 3 initiatives IT executives are planning to have their organizations focus on over the next 12 months. Source: 2015 State of the Network Study, Technology Adoption Trends & Their Impact on the Network (free PDF, no opt in). A summary of the study can be found here: State of the Network 2015.
- IDC predicts that by 2016, there will be an 11% shift of IT budget away from traditional in-house IT delivery, toward various versions of cloud computing as a new delivery model. By 2017, 35% of new applications will use cloud-enabled, continuous delivery and enabled by faster DevOps life cycles to streamline rollout of new features and business innovation. Source: 2015-2017 Forecast: Cloud Computing to Skyrocket, Rule IT Delivery.
- By 2018, IDC forecasts that public cloud spending will more than double to $127.5 billion. This forecast is broken down as follows: $82.7 billion in SaaS spending, $24.6 billion for IaaS and $20.3 billion in PaaS expenditures. Source: Forecasts Call For Cloud Burst Through 2018.
- 27.8% of the worldwide enterprise applications market will be SaaS-based, generating $50.8B in revenue up from $22.6B or 16.6% of the market in 2013. IDC also estimates the overall enterprise applications market in 2013 was $135.9B. Source: IDC Predicts SaaS Enterprise Applications Will Be A $50.8B Market By 2018.
- By 2016 over 80% of enterprises globally will using IaaS, with investments in private cloud computing showing the greater growth. Ovum forecasts that by 2016, 75% of EMEA-based enterprises will be using IaaS. These and other insights are from the presentation, The Role of Cloud in IT Modernisation: The DevOps Challenge (free PDF, no opt in). The graphic below provides an analysis of cloud computing adoption in EMEA and globally.
- Microsoft’s commercial cloud revenue grew 128% in Q3, 2014, while server products and services revenue increased 13%. Source: 2015 Forecast: The Sun is Out for Cloud Computing.
- The SaaS Supply Chain Management (SCM) market is predicted to a $4.4B market by 2018, attaining a 19% CAGR from 2014 to 2018. The following graphic from a recent Accenture study is shown below. Source: Supply Chain Management in the Cloud: How can cloud-based computing make supply chains more competitive?
- Enterprise cloud subscription revenues are forecast to reach $67B by 2018, attaining a CAGR of 17.3% in the forecast period. This and other forecasts on cloud computing adoption are provided in the Apps Run The Cloud downloadable report World’s Cloud Top 500 Applications Vendors: Worldwide Cloud Applications Market Forecast 2014-2018 (free PDF, no opt-in). For a breakout of forecast categories and projected spending please see the blog post Worldwide Cloud Applications Market Forecast 2014-2018.
- By 2018, more than 60% of enterprises will have at least half of their infrastructure on cloud-based platforms. These and other are insights are from the keynote Cloud Business Summit presentation Digital Business, Rethinking Fundamentals by Bill McNee, Founder and CEO, Saugatuck Technology. Source: Digital Business, Rethinking Fundamentals.
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